I left it for a while. 348,000 ticks later, still no luck. It looks like it "could" win if it ever pushed through. With a little bit of experimentation in shortening the bullet to pass through easier, I found some luck in pushing the ball some, but not enough to win. :-(
Here's something that demonstrates what I'm talking about, but I haven't actually seen victory with it.
http://FantasticContraption.com/?designId=8859611To use an old idea, here's an old design that looks like it almost works, but hasn't had the right tweaking yet. I'm getting kinda tired, so if someone else figures it out before me, great.
http://FantasticContraption.com/?designId=8859791